The "2024 Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" was recently released in Beijing. According to the report, China's refining capacity will continue to grow slightly in 2024, and the refining industry will accelerate its transformation and upgrading, which will peak during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.
China's refining capacity will peak during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period
In 2024, the domestic refining capacity has reached 955 million tons/year, an increase of 19.3 million tons/year over the previous year, refined oil production has declined, and chemical oil production has continued to maintain rapid growth. According to the current projects under construction, reconstruction and expansion, and proposed projects, China's refining capacity is expected to peak around 2028, with a peak of 980 million tons/year. After that, some backward production capacity continued to withdraw, and it is expected that by 2030, the domestic refining capacity will drop to about 960 million tons/year.
Lu Ruquan, President of the Economic and Technological Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation: In the next step, we need to integrate or improve quality and efficiency, such as transforming some small refineries into processing biomass fuels, such as giving hydrogen energy development. All in all, high-end chemicals should develop more to make the refining and chemical business develop with higher quality, and will bear fruit again in the future on new materials and new tracks.
During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the refining and chemical industry will accelerate mergers and integrations
The report predicts that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the refining and chemical industry will accelerate mergers and integrations, and respond to external risks with the scale advantages of clustering, integration and parkization. In 2030, the average scale of refineries in the country will reach 5.35 million tons/year, an increase of 530,000 tons/year compared with the level in 2024; domestic 10 million ton refineries accounted for 60.7%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from 2024; petrochemical bases such as Dalian Changxing Island, Jiangsu Lianyungang, Zhejiang Ningbo, Fujian Gulei, and Guangdong Huizhou Daya Bay have been basically completed.
Increase oil and gas development and maintain a natural gas self-sufficiency rate of more than 50%
In 2024, China's new oil and gas reserves will maintain a steady growth trend. The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration said at the press conference of the "2024 Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" that in the next step, China will continue to increase the development of oil and gas resources, maintain investment intensity, continuously consolidate oil and gas supply capacity, and maintain a natural gas self-sufficiency rate of more than 50%.
In 2024, there will be about 1.5 billion tons of new proven geological reserves of oil and nearly 1.6 trillion cubic meters of new proven geological reserves of natural gas, mainly from Bohai Bay, Tarim, Sichuan, Ordos and other basins. In the future, deep-land, deep-sea and unconventional oil and gas resources will remain the focus of exploration.
Han Yuzhu, deputy director of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Department of the National Energy Administration: It is necessary to improve the ability to guarantee independently, increase the development of oil and gas resources, especially unconventional oil and gas resources, maintain investment intensity, improve support policies, and ensure that China's crude oil production is stable at the level of 200 million tons for a long time, and the natural gas self-sufficiency rate remains above 50%.
In 2025, it is expected that the new geological reserves of oil and natural gas in the country will continue to remain high, with about 1 billion tons of new petroleum geological reserves and about 1 trillion cubic meters of new natural gas geological reserves. Oil production continued to remain at the level of 200 million tons, and new natural gas production continued to remain above 10 billion cubic meters.
Source: CCTV